How to calculate a decimal-odds return
Decimal odds express the total potential return per unit staked if the wager wins, including the original stake. The basic arithmetic is stake × decimal odds = potential total return; total return − stake = potential net gain. Actual payout remains subject to accepted prices and operator settlement terms.
| Hypothetical stake | Decimal odds | Potential total return | Potential net gain if won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 units | 1.50 | 15 units | 5 units |
| 10 units | 2.20 | 22 units | 12 units |
| 10 units | 3.75 | 37.50 units | 27.50 units |
Implied probability is not a forecast
The mathematical implied probability of decimal odds D is 100 / D percent. Thus decimal odds 2.00 imply 50% before accounting for bookmaker margin. At odds 2.50 the simple implied percentage is 40%. These are pricing conversions, not guarantees of the true chance or a profitable strategy.
Prices across opposite outcomes may collectively imply more than 100% because of the bookmaker margin; comparing a quoted implied chance to an objective event probability requires independent analysis.
Market names determine what is settled
| Market | Selection question | What to verify |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win, draw or away win? | Specified event period, often regular time |
| Over/under | Will a score total cross a stated line? | Whether line is 2.5, 3.5, or other; valid period |
| Draw no bet | Which side wins with a draw void? | Whether a draw refunds stake |
| Player or team props | Will a named player/team meet a condition? | Participation and official-statistic rules |
SportPesa’s official game rules define distinct market variants. A similar-looking label can have different settlement rules depending on the sport.
What happens with a void leg in an accumulator?
Illustrative calculation: A three-leg accumulator with odds 1.80 × 2.00 × 1.50 has combined odds 5.40. If the 2.00 selection is void and treated at 1.00, adjusted combined odds become 1.80 × 1.00 × 1.50 = 2.70. A 10-unit stake would then have a hypothetical 27-unit total return if every remaining leg wins.
SportPesa’s published rules describe 1.00 treatment in certain void-multi circumstances. An illustrative computation is not a guarantee of how a specific wager will settle. Betting terms.
Avoid four common interpretation errors
- Confusing the total return (including stake) with profit.
- Assuming an odds-derived percentage is a true forecast.
- Ignoring whether overtime counts in the market.
- Assuming every market is accepted at the first displayed live price.
For examples of football scores visit football markets; for changes before acceptance visit live markets.